Equity research, written to be read in ten years.
Business-first analysis of companies we have actually underwritten. Every note opens free; the full thesis and the numbers behind it are published to subscribers.
MembersThe Toll Booth Nobody Priced as a Toll Booth
A depository is not a financial-services business. It is regulated infrastructure with a per-transaction levy and near-zero incremental cost — and the market keeps valuing it against brokers.
MembersSpecialty Chemicals After the China+1 Trade Got Crowded
The easy phase is over. We separate operators with genuine process IP and multi-year contracts from those who rented a cyclical tailwind — on gross-block turns rather than narrative.
MembersWhat We Sold, and the Rule That Forced Us To
Two exits this quarter, neither on valuation. Both tripped a pre-written governance trigger. The discipline is worth more than either position was.
MembersReverse-DCF as a Lie Detector
We don't use a DCF to produce a target price. We run it backwards, to extract the growth rate the market is already assuming — and then ask whether a real business can deliver it.
MembersRelated-Party Transactions: A Practical Screen
Eleven red flags, ranked by how often they preceded permanent capital loss in our own coverage history. Most are visible in the annual report if you know which schedule to open.
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