Specialty Chemicals After the China+1 Trade Got Crowded
The easy phase is over. We separate operators with genuine process IP and multi-year contracts from those who rented a cyclical tailwind — on gross-block turns rather than narrative.
Between 2020 and 2024, capacity announcements in Indian specialty chemicals exceeded any realistic reading of demand growth. Capital chases a narrative faster than customers qualify a supplier, and the gap between those two speeds is where losses live.
There is one number that separates the real operators from the rest, and it is not revenue growth.
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